Predictive Maritime Intelligence · Gulf Coast

We see the arrival before the data does.

Per-vessel ETA prediction for the Gulf Coast, shipped as a calibrated window with its coverage on the table. Graded transit by transit against the arrivals that actually happened.

97
Ports live in production
349 K+
Predictions graded against realized arrivals
7 h
Median error at one day out
Request access See the methodology
28.9°N · 93.7°W Scroll

Why the hour matters

A vessel that arrives ‘on time’ can still wait two days at the berth — and the demurrage clock never stops.

→ An ETA isn’t a congestion call. Knowing the arrival hour is what moves the position.

Ledger / the cost of being late

Self-reported
The AIS arrival field, unvalidated and often left blank
$15K–$25K
What a single demurrage day costs
Days early
When the charter and hedge calls get made
Bulk-terminal gantry cranes over a loading berth at a Gulf-Coast export port
Plate 02 Berth queue · bulk terminal

The Overtake

Where the ship is is the easy part. We forecast the hour it reaches the berth.

Two vessels leave the same position. The AIS field hands you one number and no sense of how wrong it is. Polaris hands you a calibrated window that tightens as the vessel closes. About 7 hours of median error a day out, and we publish the whole curve past 28 days.

AIS ESTIMATE
1 point no band
Polaris
~7h median, 1 day out
Port Live vessel what AIS sees AIS · one guess no band, overshoots Polaris · calibrated window true berth
28.9°N · 93.7°W · illustrative. Graded transit by transit across 97 ports.

What Polaris delivers

Four reads off the same water.

  1. Calibrated ETA windows

    Per-vessel arrival forecasts, each shipping as a window with its coverage disclosed, so you price against a band you can check. Built on AIS tracks with per-port, per-class conformal calibration, graded transit by transit across 97 ports.

    ETA · CALIBRATED WINDOW

  2. Port-congestion nowcast

    Queue-wait nowcasts at the ports that bind, calibration-verified across 19 ports and 53 port-and-class cells, so a berth backlog does not blindside a position or a charter.

    QUEUE · NOWCAST
A laden container vessel bow-on under way — the per-vessel hull Polaris forecasts to the berth.
Plate 02 · One hull, four reads: arrival window, congestion, context, record.

  1. Market context brief

    A written read on freight rates, forward-curve context, and what the queue and flow picture means for your next call. Hand-built analyst work, delivered on request.

    BRIEF · ON REQUEST

  2. Published error record

    A per-customer accuracy card, plus the levers we tested and did not ship when they missed their pre-declared thresholds. We publish what failed.

    RECORD · PUBLISHED

How we know it works

Scored against the arrival, transit by transit.

Every forecast is graded against the realized arrival on held-out voyages: the hour the vessel actually reaches the berth is the only score that counts. The model runs gradient-boosted quantile heads with conformal calibration tuned per port and class, so each ETA ships as a window with its coverage disclosed. The figures below are what it has earned against ground truth across 97 ports.

28.9°N · 93.7°W · VALIDATION SET · GULF OF MEXICO

  1. LOG · 01 97 Ports live in production
  2. LOG · 02 349 K+ Predictions graded against realized arrivals
  3. LOG · 03 7 h Median error at one day out

Graded against ground truth, transit by transit, and logged.

Pricing · Free pilot to start

Engagements, priced by fleet.

Flat monthly tiers with a vessel cap, from a small watched fleet to bespoke desk research. Every engagement opens with a free three-week pilot, so you read the forecasts on your own vessels before you commit a dollar.

  1. Free pilot

    $0 · 3 weeks

    • Weekly ETA and calibrated-window report on your own vessels
    • No commitment, no card
    • See the real numbers on your fleet before you decide
    Request Free Pilot

  2. Vessel Watch

    $300 / mo · up to 5 vessels

    • Weekly per-vessel ETA with a calibrated arrival window
    • Interval coverage disclosed on every window
    • Per-customer accuracy card
    Request Free Pilot

  3. Flow Intelligence

    $600 / mo · up to 10 vessels

    • Everything in Vessel Watch
    • Port-congestion nowcast where covered
    • Written market-context brief, analyst work on request
    Request Free Pilot

  4. Strategic / Custom

    from $1,000 / mo

    • Larger fleets and bespoke coverage
    • Berth-level work where the data supports it
    • Corridor studies and custom engagements
    Request Scope

All pilots are obligation-free · Reply usually same day · luke@driscollmaritime.com

Built on the Gulf

A maritime intelligence shop fixed on one coast.

Driscoll Maritime Intelligence reads the Gulf the way a desk reads a forward curve — close, specific, and answerable for every call.

Polaris is built and run by one operator who studies these waters full time. Every forecast is graded against the arrival that actually happened, transit by transit, on held-out voyages. The focus stays on the Gulf Coast and the method is on the table. That is the whole pitch: a vendor you can name, a record you can check, and a coastline we know close.

Talk to the operator luke@driscollmaritime.com
Method
AIS tracks run through gradient-boosted quantile models with per-port, per-class conformal calibration. Every ETA ships as a window with its coverage disclosed, graded against realized arrivals across 97 ports.
Focus
The Gulf Coast is the focus: Houston, New Orleans, Corpus Christi, and the export gateways along it. The model runs 97 ports in production across the wider trade, with the Gulf at the center of the work.
Operator
Founder-led and independent. You reach the person who builds the model, usually with a same-day reply.
A bulk carrier on the Gulf horizon at dusk, last light on flat water

Request Access

Know the arrival before the market does.

Request access

A short reply — usually same day.

28.9°N · 93.7°W  ·  DMI · Polaris